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    June 03

    宠物市场的故事

    主角:ppmm一具,宠物小香猪一具
    经过:宠物市场,一ppmm把一只小香猪捧了起来,深情的看着它说:“猪肉都涨价了,你涨不涨啊”,吾立厥倒于旁
    May 27

    上海风情

     
    上海风情的流行是蓄谋已久的,这是我开头要说的一段话。
     
    这一切都是有预兆的。1995年张爱玲在美国逝世引发了迟到半个世纪的“张爱玲热”,并持续至今。张爱玲是少有的大部分作品致力于描写旧上海风情的作家,多少华人心目中的上海是张爱玲笔下的上海,从那时起,人们对旧上海的关注从黑帮争斗转向浮现在灯红酒绿下男男女女的俗世情怀,所以,张爱玲火了。而传统意义上以描写抢滩占码头为主的旧上海题材影视剧一时备受冷落,销声匿迹,直到《花样年华》的出现——事实上,《花样年华》是上海风情的香港传奇。在张爱玲的笔下也经常如此,故事的发生地是在香港,出没其间的却是一群上海人,无时无处不在洋溢着旧上海的风情。与上海同为殖民大都会的香港很长一段时间是在模仿上海的——没想到这股热潮一发不可收拾。一个充满欲望的城市,纠缠在各种各样欲望中的世俗的男女,他们贪求、挣扎、痛苦、迷失,为谋生,更为谋爱,但他们微小的举动迅速被滚滚向前的时代洪流淹没,之后的<<2046>>,<<姨妈的后现代生活>>,再到最近的<<明明>>,都在无声的背景里述说著老上海的故事。在这一点上旧上海与今天的都市惊人相似,这种相似孕育了世纪之交上海风情的流行。
     
    在女明星的眼里,大都认为自己最美的一面只有以旧上海为背景才能最极致的展现出来,在她们身上,一样的上海,风情是不一样的。
     
    张曼玉的上海不是百乐门嘈杂的歌舞,而是长巷深处少妇一声无端的喟叹。
    巩俐的上海是十里洋场一片靡绚的灯光和鬓影。
    梅艳芳的上海是一朵黑色的菊花。不知是焦枯了,还是正徐徐开放。
    陈冲的上海是一技未开足就折下的玫瑰,却有着过分的肉感。
    叶玉卿的上海是一团白色的草纸,一截白色的肚皮。
    周迅的上海是眼中晶莹的哀伤,照不亮心中的黑暗.却足以作为信物送给情郎。
    赵薇的上海是莽撞与轻信,华丽与清寒,单纯与放荡……
    她们摇摆着腰肢和眼神,穿过我们梦想中的上海或阴蓝或潮红底色的画面款款走来。
    这是明星眼中的上海,也是上海眼中的明星。

    只有以上海为背景明星才觉得自己更像明星。这个奇怪的时代。
     
    说到这一点必须先解释什么是上海风情?上海风情是闲情逸致、小资情调、寻愁觅恨等等一系列同类词语的总称。在一个没有相当数量中产阶级的社会是容纳不了上海风情的流行的。上海风情的真正大面积流行是1995年以后的事。从那时候起,咖啡屋、西餐厅、酒吧突然增多,衣橱里有了专门的晚礼服,哪怕在寒冷的北方,夜生活也越来越受到重视……
     
    我对旧上海风情的理解:乱世,快乐而不自信,迷恋于无端,片刻的愉悦,在物质和肉欲的满足中享受最切实的人生,灵魂却总是凛流在别处……
     
    这也正是当代国内“中产阶级”内心的真实写照,一种强烈的不安全感,政治资源的无力,得过且过的浮华。
     

    消失的里弄

     
    刚到上海的时候,还在对“弄”这个词所困惑,对于新一代的移民来说这个词的含义也许并不是那么明显的,看过些许书籍,才知道在过去很多的时间里,上海人熟悉的是里弄,也就是现在所称呼的时兴的社区。
     
    “五户为邻,五邻为弄”,弄,则是小巷子,据说18世纪末已经出现在上海,里弄的大量建造则是在19世纪六七十年代以后的事。那时的上海,华人洋人杂居的局面开始不久,人口增长很快,普通市民要求房价低些再低些,当时的房地产商则为了最大商业利益,两相结合,占地不大而容量可观的转木结构老式石库门里弄应运而生。
     
    高楼之下,大街两旁,便是里弄,寻找老上海风情最理想的就是这里,百姓聚居的地方,普通人的喜怒哀乐,一个城市百年的故事,都融化在这些普通的建筑中,而现代与历史的交汇在一个叫做“新天地”的地方有了体现,它在都市生活中构筑了一个寄留情趣的空间,一个伫步养心的地方。其实新天地的格调非常现代、时尚。这些改造后的石库门房子,已将原先的一户户隔墙全部打通,在视角上,呈现出宽敞、明亮的空间,里面既有装饰繁琐的欧式壁炉、现代布艺沙发等西式配置,又有线条简练的明式八仙桌、藤面的方凳等东方什物,墙上,挂着现代油画,地上,摆着立式老唱机,门外是风情万种的石库门弄堂,门内是精致细腻的现代生活。就这样,两种不同的生活从容而平和的相处,显得优雅而脱俗,似乎深藏难以说尽的禅意。
     
    环顾四周,看着那些被修整过的石库门,眼波流转之际,心神也不禁驰骋,光影切换之际,让我不可遏至的想像老上海时代的男子女子,如何身穿长袍和旗袍,优雅地走在历史的街道里,喧嚣的都市中,心境犹如墙角飞檐,安静高远。
     
     
    May 25

    消失的投资银行

     

    2005年夏,在已经有很多预兆的情况下,所罗门美邦这个名字从投资银行界消失了;严格地说,是从“传统的”投资银行界消失了。如果你仅仅把投资银行定义为证券承销、交易和经纪,那么所罗门美邦的确消失了,取而代之的是一个名叫“花旗全球投资银行”的机构。这个转换过程没有引起多大注意,消失的只是三个荣耀的姓氏:所罗门、史密斯和巴尔尼(后两者被中国人合称为“美邦”),出现的则是一个不带任何上流社会色彩的完全平民化的名字——准确的说,是平淡无奇的名字。
      
    按照比较广义的看法,所罗门美邦这个名字仍留在“投资银行”之列,不过其业务范围只剩下金融咨询和研究;而且,在那三个荣耀的姓氏前面已经加上了“日兴”这个陌生的名字。日兴所罗门美邦?日兴是谁?日本最大的证券公司之一吗?那又能说明什么问题?当所罗门兄弟第一次承销债券的时候,日本甚至还没有进行明治维新!
      
    花旗集团有无数个理由把所罗门美邦的名字清除出投资银行界:为了应付纽约市司法机构,华尔街各大投资银行都在进行重组,研究部门的独立只是时间问题;花旗自己的品牌早已足够强大,把投资银行业务统一在花旗名下,可以加强这个金融巨无霸的整体性;更重要的是,这将在花旗的商业银行和投资银行部门之间制造一种融洽的气氛、协同的文化,让自大的投资银行人员不再以为自己是贵族。事实上,从1980年代开始,投资银行离贵族的距离就越来越远,只是一般人都不肯承认而已。
      
    还记得1986年,高盛公司第一次认真考虑上市的理由吗?根据高盛总裁文伯格的说法,上市可以“帮助高盛与行业内占据首位的强大的所罗门兄弟公司竞争”。那是所罗门兄弟的黄金时代,高盛还是一个蛰伏的小角色;美林只是规模庞大,盈利能力并没有优势;雷曼兄弟已经被收购了,或许将永远消失;虎视耽耽的商业银行也仅仅停留在虎视耽耽的阶段,它们最大的幸福就是在政府债券承销中分一杯羹。事实上,只有摩根士丹利和所罗门处在同一重量级,但这家上流投资银行的交易业务实力只是所罗门的一个零头罢了。
      
    当时谁都不可能料到20年之后会发生什么。转眼之间,所罗门先是成为了一家零售经纪公司的收购对象,然后又成为了一家商业银行的收购对象,最后它的名字干脆被抹掉了;曾经被认为永久沉沦的雷曼兄弟又杀回来了,成为了交易业务和并购领域首屈一指的角色;美林的规模还是那么庞大,但比起那些涉足投资银行领域的气势汹汹的商业银行,它的那点资本就算不了什么了;高盛现在是全球共同仰慕的领跑者,它和瑞士信贷第一波士顿共同传承着所谓“上流投资银行”的衣钵;最令人不敢想象的是,号称血统最高贵的摩根士丹利竟然跟一家零售经纪商合并了,而且那家零售经纪商的CEO坐在了摩根家族过去的宝座之上!这个世界实在太疯狂了。
      
    比起那些更加倒霉的名字,所罗门、史密斯和巴尔尼这三个姓氏已经很幸运的。十多年前,基德公司在投资银行界是一个无比伟大的名字,它的历史比摩根家族还要悠久;但是自从一个交易员做了一些见不得光的事情之后,它就消失了——基德的收购者甚至不屑于保留这个“上流”的名字。狄龙-瑞德是另一个高贵的名字,当它被ubs收购很长一段时间都不再有消息,最近借对冲基金暴涨复兴的冲动也被不当的时机所延误。还需要举更多的例子吗?贝奇?华宝?阿利克斯-布朗?德雷克赛?哈顿?它们几乎全部成为了某个商业银行或保险公司的分支机构,此后,就再也没有人听说它们的名字。
      
    华尔街的古老姓氏已经不多了,这些姓氏曾经代表着一种最清高的荣耀——投资银行家的荣耀。曾几何时,投资银行家的鞋子是雪白的,他们漫步在市场的纷扰之外,干净的手套上不曾沾上一滴鲜血。他们尊贵而强大,依靠智慧而不是武力生存。他们不依赖任何人,全世界却都依赖他们,因为他们是所有人的大脑,是金融界的灵魂。他们所做的事情只是把数量惊人的财富以证券的形式从一群人手里转移到另一群人手里,而且这一件事情他们都不亲自去做,宁愿委托给无数的小商人们帮他们做。他们抽取的是丰厚的中介费,这种费用从不打折,如果你提出抗议,他们会耸耸肩说:“这就是规则!”
      
    第一代的投资银行家只是流浪的犹太人或卖烟草的小市民,但是第二代人就迫不及待地给自己戴上了贵族的冠冕。他们骄傲地说:“我们的鞋是白色的,血是蓝色的,戒指是祖母绿的;我们每周去圣公会教堂做礼拜,坐在第一排;除了深色西装和燕尾服,我们从不穿别的衣服。”全世界都羡慕他们,也畏惧他们,因为他们不但能打赢一场战争,还能引发一场新的战争,并且再次打赢。进入他们的圈子是世界上最困难的事情,也许你要修炼十几年、几十年,甚至几代人前仆后继,最后却发现你还是进入不了那个被称为“投资银行合伙人”的圈子。附带说一句,这个圈子现在早就灰飞烟灭了。
      
    这一切都不是在一瞬间结束的。即使没有1980年代的一系列法律修改和金融创新,贵族们也注定要灭亡,因为他们在复辟一种根本不应该存在的制度。投资银行家的祖先是白手起家、奋斗创业的神话主角,他们嘲弄着那个时代的贵族,从旧秩序的地底释放出无与伦比的金融力量,并用金融改造了人类世界的每一个角落。现在,他们的后继者竟然把这股无与伦比的金融力量埋藏在枷锁之下,给它蒙上一层又一层神秘古怪的面纱,这一切只是为了满足可怜的“贵族”虚荣心——还有赚取那些本来不应该属于他们的超额利润。这真是可悲。
      
    早在商业银行和保险公司被允许进入投资银行领域之前,投资银行中的“贵族”们就开始了自相残杀,因为合伙人这个圈子里的座位是有限的。后来,许多贵族发现他们可以用自己的名号换取一笔不菲的现金,于是他们心甘情愿地把自己的公司和荣耀的姓氏一起卖出,拿着厚厚的钞票各奔东西。他们还拿自己的贵族地位作为赌博的一项筹码,最后往往连钞票带姓氏一起输掉了。英国的贵族巴林银行和美国的贵族基德公司几乎是以同样的方式倒台的,所罗门兄弟差点就跟它们一起下了地狱。商业银行、保险公司和综合性金融服务机构在旁边冷眼看着这一切,根本无须亲自出手,投资银行的贵族们就已经自我了断。残存的贵族都上市了,这是他们过去最鄙视的事情——虽然给那么多公司做了IPO,他们事实上从来没有想到自己居然也需要IPO。
      
    高盛似乎是这些贵族里支撑的最久的,虽然它早已上市,天真的人们仍然认为它是最上流的投资银行。然而这个最后的贵族做的事情却一点也不高贵——以证券交易为主,商品交易和期货交易也不可或缺,更要命的是,它居然也依靠利差赚钱,这难道不是那些“泥腿子商业银行”做的事情吗?但是隔壁的摩根士丹利做的更过分,它不仅依靠利差赚取了更多利润,事实上还把自己变成了一家基金公司;此外,它还发行自己的信用卡,这项业务是“泥腿子零售经纪公司”添惠为它带来的。对老式的上流人物来说,涉足商品交易已经够丢人现眼了,从事零售经纪和信用卡业务就更不可想象。难道华尔街的贵族要向那些年收入不到5万美元的穷老百姓低声下气吗?可是他们人多势众,市场终究是由他们掌握的。
      
    下一个消失的是谁?那些应该消失的姓氏都已经消失了,在短期内,大家可能还是安全的。但有一个名字的消失是不可避免的,那就是“投资银行”。在过去的二十年里,我们看到各种金融业务呈现日益整合的局面,随着信息技术的进步、金融工程学的发展和人们的观念的转变,直接融资与间接融资、卖方与买方、中介业务与自营业务的界限日益模糊,金融混业经营已经是大势所趋。请把“投资银行”叫做“金融服务供应商”,请把它看做一个混血的强壮的竞争者,而不是血统高贵的虚弱的贵族。
      
    归根结底,金融服务不是一种商品。无论是投资银行还是商业银行,销售的都不应该是孤立的产品,而是成套的解决方案。它们不仅应当向客户提供合适的融资工具或投资工具,还应当教会客户如何使用这些金融工具,如何以这些金融工具为基础制订一套有机的、完整的金融解决方案。贵族从来不可能是好老师,因为他们从来看不起自己的学生。所以,那些把自己视为贵族的投资银行都消失了,顾客们用脚投票,选择了一群强大的平民继承他们的事业。
      
    为那些消失的名字感叹是不值得的。然而,有些名字注定要一直存在,直到金融行业从这个世界上消失为止。在激烈的竞争中生存下来的投资银行将成为全方位的金融咨询机构,它们的一系列变革最终将为企业和个人提供更适合、更完整的金融解决方案,在这个过程中,它们将再次释放金融活动的无与伦比的伟大力量,把更多的自由和效率带给每一个人。

    A name in the history

     
    Dillon, Read & Co. was a prominent American investment bank from the 1920s into the 1960s. It was purchased by Swiss Bank Corporation (SBC) in 1997 and merged with London investment bank S.G. Warburg & Co. to become Warburg Dillon Read. The merged entity in turn became part of UBS AG when the latter firm bought SBC. The Dillon Read name was dropped by 2000 but recently re-emerged in the name of a UBS division, Dillon Read Capital Management. However, in May, 2007, UBS announced it was shuttering the unit in the wake of huge losses resulting from sub-prime mortgages.
     
    believe it or not, you are part of the history,May 3, 2007 - a memorable date
    May 22

    打分数 - 黄立行

     
    几十年来,三大信用评级机构一直在联手评判在国际资本市场融资的各类机构的财务状况,其中包括政府、多边组织,尤其是企业。
     
    这些金融权威及一些规模较小的同行发布的评级报告,影响着发债机构的融资成本,而且经常被各种规章制度奉为标准,决定着保险公司、养老金计划和共同基金可以购买的证券种类。评级可以轻而易举地造就或毁灭某类证券。一次降低评级,甚至可以导致一国陷入衰退,或导致企业破产。
     
    但是,标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)、穆迪投资服务公司(Moody's Investor Service)和惠誉评级(Fitch Ratings)这三大评级机构是否胜任这份工作?——特别是在规模巨大、不断增长且复杂无比的结构融资市场上。
     
    在这个市场上,投资银行将按揭贷款、汽车贷款、企业债券和其它许多类型的债券一次次地打包和再打包,然后出售给各种投资者——从养老金、保险集团,到对冲基金和银行的交易部门。一笔交易成功的关键,就是获得恰当的信用评级。
     
    评级机构如何决定这些评级,已经成为人们越来越关心的问题,而这些机构与华尔街和伦敦金融城大型投行之间的关系也在人们的关注之列。一些人担心可能出现利益冲突,因为支付评级费用的是投资银行,而非投资者。其他人只是认为,需要评级的交易太复杂,把这些机构搞糊涂了,而且它们无力跟上银行界的创造力和资源。
     
    圣迭戈大学法学院(University of San Diego's School of Law)教授弗兰克•帕特洛伊(Frank Partnoy)表示:“信用评级机构已经变得更加老道,但仍然落后于投资银行。”帕特洛伊曾是华尔街的银行家。
     
    此外,随着结构融资交易的出现,一些无法理解其复杂性的投资者,较以往更加依赖评级机构的意见了。这些结构融资交易使用了衍生工具、债券和贷款等多种金融工具,非常复杂。
     
    “保险公司更为依赖评级,我们也一样,”基金管理公司Payden & Rygel信用策略主管萨布尔•莫伊尼(Sabur Moini)表示,“对冲基金等非传统买家则远非如此。”
     
    最近的许多失误和争论,已经动摇了人们对评级机构进行正确评级的信心。例如,穆迪和标准普尔已被迫降低数十种新发行的、以美国次级房屋贷款为担保的证券的评级,因为贷款人延期偿贷和违约问题急剧增长,比这些机构此前的预期更为严重,表明评级的假设基础或许有问题。
     
    同时,在一次罕见的公开争论中,惠誉和另一家较小的机构向穆迪和标准普尔对一种新产品的评级方法提出质疑。该产品名为固定比例债务证券(constant proportion debt obligation),是新一代高度结构化、且有可能出现波动的衍生产品中的第一个。
     
    3月份,穆迪也被迫非常难堪地改变立场,原因是一种新的银行评级方法遭到了分析人士和投资者的奚落。该方法将政府帮助银行脱困的可能性也纳入评级考虑内容。
     
    在结构融资的艰难世界中,提出一个评级非常具有挑战性。例如,一个典型的按揭担保证券交易,包括重新包装价值数亿美元的几千笔按揭,而每个贷款人都有不同的信用记录。
     
    承销这笔交易的一家投资银行,发行由这一投资组合担保的多批新证券。购买最高风险证券的投资者,将最先因为贷款人违约而遭受损失。这些债券或许根本没有评级。购买最低风险证券的投资者,最后遭受损失,意味着这些证券(通常占整笔交易的四分之三或更多)通常拥有AAA评级。
     
    为此种工具评级需要复杂的分析和成熟精深的计算机模型,这使得评级工作变成了一项令人畏惧的任务。结果,许多投资者表示,对结构融资的评级很难独立验证。一些人还抱怨,他们很难进入评级机构与分析人士直接对话。
     
    然而,仅在美国,已发行的结构性证券就有近9万亿美元,是美国国债市场规模的两倍多,而评级机构目前的大部分收入,也来自对这些产品的评级。例如,穆迪去年44%的收入来自结构融资交易。此种评估的费率,较相对简单的企业评级高出一倍多,这帮助穆迪将营运利润率保持在50%以上。
     
    批评人士表示,评级机构“发行人付费”的模式中存在利益冲突的可能性,从前已经引起过争论,但这些机构在结构融资业务上对投资银行的依赖程度,使它们有重大动机友好地看待它们正在评级的产品。
     
    向评级机构发难的监管者中,有一位是法国金融市场管理局(Autorité des Marchés Financiers)主管迈克尔•普拉达(Michel Prada)。在他位于巴黎的办公室中,这位法国主要的金融监管官员对那些机构的角色和客观性提出新的质疑。
     
    普拉达认为,这一方面出现利益冲突的可能性,与审计公司涉足咨询业务时的情况类似。利润更高的咨询业务需要赢得并保持客户,从而威胁到审计工作的诚实性,这种冲突最终使会计师事务所安达信(Arthur Andersen)在安然(Enron)破产后也立即倒闭。他表示:“我不希望需要出现另一次安然事件,才能使所人都开始考虑评级机构的问题。”
     
    至少,普拉达不是唯一一个对结构融资的评级怀有忧虑的官员。国际清算银行(BIS)也研究了结构性产品,据悉,这些产品过去被降低评级的速度令该行感到不安。国际清算银行总部位于巴塞尔,是“中央银行的银行”。
     
    纽约大学斯特恩商学院(New York University's Stern business school)的经济学教授拉里•怀特(Larry White)也提到了安达信的例子。他表示,评级机构在客观性方面的声誉太重要了,绝不能沾染利益冲突,总体来讲,这样的要求很合理。
     
    “但是,那也是安达信对我们所讲述的东西,”他表示,“你必须记住‘安达信'这个名字。”然而,怀特教授认为,总体上,这些大机构有“非常好的记录”。
     
    评级机构本身也强调,保持其评级的可信性对它们的成功至关重要。它们表示,与其它业务一样,自己在结构融资方面也在谨慎管理,以避免利益冲突,并保持客观。
     
    惠誉评级全球结构融资主管格洛里亚•阿维奥蒂(Gloria Aviotti)提出的证据表明,结构融资评级与企业评级在统计上具有可比性,至少是同样稳定。
    她还表示,结构性产品的评级方法,是惠誉最明确且公开定义的评级方法之一。结构性产品包括抵押担保证券和债务抵押证券(CDO)。她认为,这种透明度有助于避免利益冲突,因为它让投资者有机会看到惠誉以同样方法处理所有类似的结构性产品。
     
    穆迪高级董事总经理诺埃尔•基尔农(Noel Kirnon)补充称,“投资者有能力经常挑战我们的工作”。他表示,目前有许多工具可以帮助投资者独立评估他们面对的证券。
     
    挽留人才,难!
    然而,除了利益冲突的可能性以外,投资者还担心评级机构已经力不从心。鉴于每天的新交易堆积如山,包括Payden & Rygel的莫伊尼在内的很多人认为,评级机构需要证明自己能够应付。但他担忧,这些评级机构难以留住经验丰富的人才。
     
    猎头公司光辉国际(Korn Ferry)资本市场业务主管理查德•斯坦(Richard Stein)表示,对投资银行而言,结构融资评级专家非常有价值。他表示:“投行向分析师提供的薪资是他们在评级机构收入的3-4倍,这并不稀奇。”
     
    帕特洛伊教授对此表示同意:“华尔街投行很少能找到信用评级机构的高手,但一旦发现,就会招入麾下。”他表示,人才流失使评级机构难以跟上市场的变化。
     
    一定程度上正是由于这些挑战的存在,使得法国金融市场管理局的普拉达担心,与企业或政府债券等更传统的债务评级相比,结构融资评级或许更容易遭遇迅速调降,从而可能导致投资者的资产价值大幅下降。
     
    评级机构对这一担忧加以驳斥。经过对历史数据的分析,它们声称,结构融资评级的波动性并不比简单债券评级的波动性大。
    不过,Loomis Sayles副董事长兼债券基金经理丹•法斯(Dan Fuss)部分认同Prada的担忧。他表示,在结构融资方面,投资者更容易受到低概率突发事件的影响,这些事件“会让潜在流动性撤出市场”。
     
    换言之,他认为,与传统企业债券相比,当证券被降级时,结构性工具可能更容易受到投资者争相抛售的冲击。他表示:“即使评级相同,(这两种投资工具的价格)表现也有所不同。”
     
    评级机构强调,对于这类证券,其评级的重点显然不在市场定价或交易流动性,而是关注违约的可能性。然而,一些投资者可能不理解这种区别,他们可能会对价格波动感到意外。法斯还指出,许多较新的结构性工具一直没有经历过严重且广泛的市场低迷时期,因此使得它们的表现难以预测。
     
    近年来发生了一系列扰乱市场但没有导致其脱离正常轨道的事件,破坏了良性的借贷环境。然而,尽管美国次级抵押贷款领域的问题引发市场震荡,但就目前而言,那些稳定的环境因素似乎仍在持续。
     
    “信贷环境即将发生变化”
    不过,多数投资者和分析师认为,信贷环境即将发生变化,可能会变得非常严峻。评级机构已经因为次级抵押贷款领域的问题而备受攻击,不过,违约和降级的最终影响目前仍不得而知。
     
    当这一潮流最终发生逆转、更多公司和结构交易被降级时,由于其显然缺乏先见之明,评级机构可能会受到更多批评。穆迪首席执行官雷蒙德•麦克丹尼尔(Ray McDaniel)表示:“我认为我们的评级越来越合理,但我们仍然受到批评。”
     
    一些大型评级机构的管理人员已在寻找方法,以防范监管机构方面采取任何行动——特别是在欧洲。一位评级机构管理人员表示,“欧洲的官员经常在事情出错时‘管闲事'。”
     
    目前很不明确的是,美国或欧洲官员是否有意改变目前宽松的监管,加大其对评级机构的监控。美国正在改进对评级机构的监管政策。他们以前不会采取这些措施。
     
    监管机构是否采取行动,可能取决于结构融资市场此后发生事件的严重性。许多观察家赞同前穆迪分析师西尔万•雷恩斯(Sylvain Raynes)的看法。雷恩斯目前是咨询公司R&R Consulting的合伙人。
     
    雷恩斯表示:“一些大事(负面的)即将发生。他们将把所有责任归因于某人。他们将看到的名字是惠誉、穆迪和标准普尔。”
     
     
    May 14

    政治

     
    任何成功的背后,最根本的决定因素,是各种利益和意志的较量与平衡,而不是通常认为的哪个人的个人才华。一个人如果不能洞悉并顺应各种意志冲撞后的前进方向,结果往往是越高的才华,换回越多的感伤。从陈良宇到最近海淀原区长周良洛,其实都是政治斗争的牺牲品,政界商界无不如是,不知最近雷锋塔的掉到是否也是如是呢,有些悲哀,从人类存在起就延续的规则慢慢在显现。
    May 13

    我见青山多妩媚,料青山见我应如是

     
    虽然没有青山,不过世纪公园的水还是蛮不错的,周末去了一趟,在湖边搭了一个帐篷,享受了一个下午的安静美好时光,人生苦短,何不逍遥自在一些呢

    评级机构可被判赔偿投资者损失

    据最新发布的一份研究报告称,对于投资者在美国次级抵押贷款等风险资产支持的复杂证券上遭受的损失,信用评级机构可能承担责任。

    如果评级机构确实须对此负责,那么评级机构历来坚持的理由——即它们的评级是受美国宪法言论自由条款保护的观点——可能会被推翻,从而极大改变信用评级业务的面貌。

    总体而言,在投资者提起的法律诉讼中,评级机构的这一辩护理由颇为有效。但上周以初稿形式发布的上述研究报告认为,在规模巨大且不断增长的结构性金融产品市场上,评级机构与其所评级之交易的关系已变得过于密切。

    该研究报告的作者称,评级机构已经偏离了它们以往作为意见提供者的角色,转而与投资银行家密切合作,帮助他们获得理想的评级,以求将产品出售给投资者。

    报告的两位作者——投资研究公司Graham Fisher的咨询顾问约什•罗斯纳尔(Josh Rosner)和美国费城德雷塞尔大学(Drexel University)金融学副教授约瑟夫•梅森(Joseph Mason)称:“在传统评级程序中,企业很难在证券发行前改变其风险特性;但结构性金融产品领域则不同,在该领域中,评级机构在设计交易结构过程中通常扮演了颇为活跃的角色。”

    全球三大评级机构——穆迪(Moody's)、惠誉(Fitch)和标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)昨日迅速对此予以否认,称它们的作用仅限于发布评级意见,投资银行可以利用它们公开发布的评级标准来设计交易结构。

    目前,投资者尚未在任何诉讼中尝试以此为理由。

    过去,对于投资者提起的诉讼,评级机构都以它们的观点受《美国宪法第一修正案》(First Amendment to the US Constitution)保护为由进行回应。这些诉讼包括加利福尼亚州橙县(Orange County)市政债券违约案和安然(Enron)破产后提起的诉讼等。

    April 12

    鸡尾点评之- 长岛冰茶 LONG ISLAND ICED TEA

           

    材料 :
    辛辣琴酒-------------15ml
    伏特加---------------15ml
    无色兰姆酒------------15ml
    龙舌兰----------------15ml
    无色柑香酒------------10ml
    柠檬汁----------------30ml
    糖浆------------------1茶匙
    可乐------------------40ml
    柠檬片----------------1片


    用具:
    搅拌长匙、吸管、大果汁杯


    做法:
    1.将材料倒入装满细碎冰的杯中搅匀。
    2.用柠檬做装饰,最后附上吸管。


      虽然取名冰茶,却在没有使用半滴红茶的情况下就调制出 具有红茶色泽与口味的美味鸡尾酒来。它的酒精成份相当高,千万别被柑香酒、柠檬汁与可乐的甜味蒙骗, 长岛冰茶属于碳酸型鸡尾酒,杯里的吸管最好不用,否则会降低爽口程度。喝的时候也不要摇晃,以免失去层次感。细细品味,让舌头逐一感应里面不同的味道,越是深入,越是美妙,低调的外表和甜蜜的味道后面蕴藏着令人刮目相看的后劲。

          “若然道别是下一句
          可以闭上了你的嘴
          无谓再会要是再会更加心碎
          要是回去没有止疼药水
          拿来长岛冰茶换我半晚安睡
          十年后或现在失去

          反正到最尾也唏嘘
    ”。。。

    第一次喝它是在一个不那么寂寞的拉丁酒吧,和熟悉的一群朋友。而第一次听到长岛冰茶这个名,是杨千嬅的《可惜我是水瓶座》。

    杨千嬅,大笑姑婆,一向让人觉得是大方开朗的女子,也能将这首悲情的歌演绎得这么到位.

    其实很多时候,心里还是放不下,所以,夜半无人时,一杯Long Island Tea,又开始一心一意思念远方的她。

    April 03

    人品当日要闻

    4月3号人品继续跌破净资产,黑暗中等待人品反弹

    人品历史回顾之3月31号

    突然想起来为什么人品值在4月1号会暴跌,因为3月31号人品瞬间爆发见到了从德国回来的上帝Aptor,然后去Zapata玩居然AA了,所有人品都在那一刻耗尽

    4月1日人品值走势降到历史新低

    周日的人品大盘震荡走弱,猛然降到谷底, 先是物是人非,室友搬走,一片狼籍,尔后莫名和某人吵了一架,罢了罢了,结果刚说要上上网,一开机笔记本硬盘又挂掉了。。。。。。不知世上是否有人品权证安慰一下我的脆弱心灵
    March 31

    Subprime lender ResMAE files for bankruptcy

    ResMAE said it plans to sell most of its assets to Swiss bank Credit Suisse for $19 million as part of its bankruptcy reorganization, according to the Monday filing.
    ResMAE is the latest subprime lenders to descend into crisis. Mortgage Lenders Network USA had to be bailed out by Lehman Brothers earlier this year, while rival Ownit Mortgage Solutions filed for bankruptcy in late December.
    New Century Financial shares have lost almost half their value this year. The lender said last week that it found errors in the way it accounted for subprime mortgages. Banking giant HSBC Holdings disclosed problems in its subprime business last week too.
    ResMAE was started in late 2001 by Jack Mayesh, Edward Resendez and William Komperda, who had sold Long Beach Financial, another subprime lender they founded, to Washington Mutual in 1999.
    ResMAE grew quickly to become a top 20 subprime lender in the U.S. However, by early 2005, loan originations began to wane, knocking ResMAE's profitability. By cutting costs and lifting the interest rates it charged on loans, the company said it was able to make a small profit last year "despite the industry collapsing around it."
    But then Merrill Lynch, which had become the largest buyer of ResMAE's loans, asked the company to repurchase more than $300 million worth of loans. That "enormous" repurchase request, which ResMAE disputes, triggered a liquidity crisis and forced the company to put itself up for sale.
    The repurchase demands "crippled ResMAE's operations by requiring the company to post enormous reserves, which dramatically reduced its capital and operating liquidity," the company said in its filing. 
    March 30

    次级抵押贷款市场各方将应召开会

    获得次级抵押贷款的往往是那些信用纪录不佳、以正常标准无法获得抵押贷款的人。随着近年来美国住房市场的日趋火爆,次级抵押贷款变得非常受欢迎。有一个数据可以清楚地说明这一点,根据美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)提供的数据,2005年次级抵押贷款占抵押贷款市场总量的比例已从1994年的5%跃升至20%。

    随着这类贷款的日渐风行,贷款发放机构大为放宽了借贷标准。根据调研公司First American Loan Performance的报告,在2001年所有的次级抵押贷款中,有25%发放给了那些只提供了很少量收入证明或根本没有提供任何收入证明的借款人。而到了2006年,这个比例就已升至45%。

    今年,大约有12家次级抵押贷款发放机构已经倒闭,与此同时,这类高成本贷款的止赎率也出现了大幅飙升。
    美国联邦政府银行监管机构将召集华尔街公司及其他涉足抵押贷款市场的公司开会,会议将讨论的问题是,投资者对次级抵押贷款的旺盛需求是否是导致过度放贷及引发该市场中出现某些问题的原因。

    美国联邦存款保险公司(Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.)董事长希拉•贝尔(Sheila Bair)表示,定于4月16日召开的此次会议将评估华尔街在放松信贷准入及降低担保标准这两个问题上的影响。批评人士指出,正是这两大因素导致了某些高风险高成本住房贷款的止赎率出现直线上升。
    March 26

    半身不遂中

    周末去苏州骑马,由于是新手,虽然最后学会了推浪,压浪还可以扬鞭让马狂奔,但是3个小时的马背生涯还是让我在这周残废了,脖子肌肉,背部肌肉,臀部肌肉,小腿肌肉都酸的要死,每次坐下的时候就要忍受痛苦,真想唱吴克群的《残废》
    March 20

    Lehman sees more subprime woes

    Lehman Brothers said Wednesday that turmoil in the subprime mortgage business is likely to persist but that could open up some opportunities for the firm.

    "[The subprime mortgage business in the U.S.] will continue to face headwinds in the near term," Lehman CFO Chris O'Meara told analysts during a conference call.

    But Lehman is seeing the return of pricing power and "we expect to see various opportunities from the market dislocation," he said.

    The exposure investment banks have to the subprime market has come into focus as some of the nation's largest subprime mortgage lenders have fallen to the brink of bankruptcy amid a sharp rise in defaults among borrowers.

    Shares of Lehman (down $2.72 to $69.28, Charts) fell 4 percent in midday trading amid a broad market selloff triggered by ongoing troubles in the subprime mortgage market.

    Wall Street firms have their hands in all segments of the subprime market, where lenders make home loans to borrowers with weak credit. Wall Street banks not only provide financing to mortgage lenders, but also buy these loans, repackage them and sell them as securities to big investors like mutual funds and hedge funds.

    Analysts consider Lehman to be one of the Wall Street firms with the most exposure to these risky home loans.

    Lehman is "not immune" to problems in the U.S. subprime sector, which hurt its "securitizing" business during the latest quarter, but it has actively hedged its positions to lower its overall risk, O'Meara said.

    Revenue from the subprime mortgage business remains small, he also pointed out. Over the past six quarters, U.S. subprime mortgage origination, securitization and trading accounted for less than 3 percent of the company's revenue.

    Additionally, Lehman's experience in the subprime sector could help it benefit from turmoil in the market, O'Meara said. Such opportunities could range from buying portfolios of assets to helping clients rearrange their portfolios and picking up talent, he said.

    He also said that the subprime challenges appear to be fairly contained for now, echoing the view Goldman Sachs CFO David Viniar offered a day earlier.

    Goldman Sachs, which is believed to have a smaller exposure to subprime compared to other Wall Street firms, said it is keeping an eye on prices, but downplayed the idea that it plans to delve deeper into subprime.

    "We look at opportunities in all sectors if the price is right and if we think the point in the cycle is appropriate," a Goldman Sachs spokesman said Wednesday. "But we are not aggressively pursuing the subprime sector," he added.

    So far, subprime woes don't appear to be hurting the bottom line for Wall Street banks.

    Lehman posted record quarterly results on Wednesday. The investment brokerage said net income rose 6 percent to $1.15 billion, or $1.96 a share, for its fiscal first quarter ended Feb. 28. Revenue jumped 13 percent to $5 billion.

    Goldman Sachs (Charts), which kicked off earnings season for Wall Street on Tuesday, also posted record quarterly results. Bear Stearns (Charts) is next on tap with earnings due on Thursday.

    But economists worry problems in subprime will eventually spread to other parts of the mortgage market, creating a credit crunch that could slow the housing recovery and hurt the broader economy.

    Wall Street firms could take a hit from such a fallout, not just because they have exposure to subprime loans but because their overall business would be impacted by a downturn in the economy.

    March 19

    The Postmodern Life Of My Aunt

    最近国产电影出了不少好片,落叶归根,三峡好人,爱情呼叫转移都很好,姨妈的后现代生活也非常好,尤其在被无数肥腻腻的“视觉大餐”败尽了胃口之后,张杨,贾樟柯,许鞍华们送上的诚恳、内捻和人文精神显得及时而珍贵。


    《姨妈的后现代生活》用许鞍华特有的细腻和关怀,冷静的讲述了我父母那一代人的代表姨妈和她周围的人在当前时代背景下的悲喜人生。

    正如电影海报上所写,最美好的生活不过如此,最悲哀的生活不过如此。影片以斯琴高娃扮演的姨妈为主线,穿插了邻居灰带鱼、骗子金永花、女儿刘大凡等不同的女性形象,共同描绘了一段悲喜交加的生活图景。影片前半段以一出出癫狂喜剧表现了姨妈在上海这个大都市里经历的种种后现代生活,而姨妈身边的各个人物也次第出场:和网友一起策划绑架的外甥宽宽,每天变换一种发型的时髦邻居灰带鱼,为救女儿而在街上碰瓷骗钱的金永花,当然,还有那个和姨妈搞黄昏恋却最终骗得姨妈血本无归的潘知常。而在影片的后半段,镜头从繁华喧闹的上海转向凋敝苍凉的鞍山,电影的调子也急转直下,清高孤傲的姨妈终于在种种波折之后失去了往昔的光鲜色彩。


    同姨妈一样,灰带鱼、金永花、刘大凡,无一不是自己梦想的埋葬者。每天换一种头发颜色的灰带鱼看似风光无限,实际上真正能够陪伴的只有一只猫,而她也因为痛失爱猫诱发心脏病死亡;金永花为救重病的女儿碰瓷骗钱,在走投无路时默默地摘掉女儿的呼吸器,妄图结束女儿和全家的痛苦;姨妈的女儿刘大凡,在粗鄙的言语和恶俗的外表下也隐藏着蠢蠢欲动的对繁华都市和美好生活的憧憬,然而在一番挣扎后依旧只能屈服于命运,继续做一个厨子。


    知青,这是我在这个片子里第一个触动,许鞍华没有用激烈的台词和直白的情节去评价(控诉)抑或怜悯,姨妈,姨妈的家庭、飞飞、飞飞的父母、外婆,甚至还有潘知常,他们都生活在知青的悲剧阴影中。相比起姨妈和飞飞家庭,潘知常的人生更加隐晦,影片并没有明确的交代老潘的经历,从他的年龄和才学我善良的认为他也是经历了那个时代的怀才不遇者,他的人生极有可能也是时代悲剧,最终被迫混迹江湖行骗为生。从老潘身上我能隐约看到我的一位长辈,相似的学识(尤其是古文)、相似的经历,没有机遇,所不同的是他没有老潘的风流和圆滑,生活凄凉而让人叹息。老潘最后一段让我们看到了他的歉意,他内在的良知和温情的一面,当然,还有小马哥的风采,许鞍华的致敬让我拍案叫绝,也让老潘的故事有了一个令人玩味的继续。


    上海,上海是个让人着迷的地方,尤其是当许鞍华与你分享她的视角时。许鞍华巧妙的展现了上海人生来的优越感,略有艺术加工,但没有讽刺,得体而客观:当年姨妈抛弃家庭回到上海;在里弄以上海市民的身份高高在上的质问弄脏环境外地人;还有金永花的遭遇体现出来的农民工眼中“上海市民”的神圣等。姨妈和水阿姨斗了几十年的气,争的是典型的上海人那二两半的自尊,当斗气的对象离世、当微薄的财产丧失,姨妈再也无法撑起那虚荣自尊的外表,彻底的被浮华的上海抛弃。汽车行驶在高架桥上的那一幕颇有几分隐喻色彩,光怪陆离灯红酒绿,这里无数的人生继续着螺旋上升或者沉沦的故事,而姨妈却带着梦想离去。许多影评说这部电影在这里结束会来得更好。我想在这里给电影结尾只能说会减轻我们观者的心理负担,毕竟我们都希望姨妈离开上海一家团聚能够有个幸福的生活,故事在这里画上省略号能够让我们带着甜蜜的期望愉快的离开。许鞍华没有这样做,而正是她的这一瓢冷水让我们看到了她的真诚、冷静和客观,鞍山,这个如同被遗忘的地方与上海巨大的反差让我们每个中国人都冷静的看到上海之外的中国的真实,姨妈的生活在这里继续,当剥去了上海人的虚荣外表,姨妈显示出了与大多数中国老百姓一样共性真实的一面,或者说,上海的姨妈、东北的姨妈都是真实的,不同的只是心态和对“顽强”不一样的诠释。许鞍华并没有拍一部流俗的“都市”时尚电影,因为中国更多的姨妈在这样的环境中延续着她们的生命,这才是真实的中国,真实的数以亿计的中国下层老百姓,她们顽强、卑微、沧桑、遍体鳞伤、筋疲力尽。


    月亮,影片中两次出现了月亮,一次是病床上的姨妈看到的,一次是宽宽与姨妈女儿刘大凡看到的,对这个硕大的月亮的理解就见仁见智了,我以为月亮代表了遭遇困境时梦想,梦想不同于希望,看似美好,但或许根本不会实现,不过无论怎样,梦想总能给我们摆脱困境或者在困境中生存下来的动力,这就是生活。


    最后,久石让此次的配乐比哈尔的移动城堡、情颠大圣配的都要好,应该算千寻之后这几年里最出色的配乐作品了,可惜我找不到OST的下载。充满张力的电影配上充满张力的音乐,完美至极。

    Barclays Bank Makes Inquiry on Takeover of ABN Amro

    LONDON, March 19 — Barclays, one of Britain’s largest banks, has made an informal takeover approach for ABN Amro Holding, the largest bank in the Netherlands, which is under pressure from hedge funds to consider a merger or asset sales to bolster its lagging share price.

    A takeover of ABN by Barclays would be the largest crossborder merger ever in the European banking industry, and would create a combined company with market value of more than £80 billion, or $155 billion, with businesses in the United States and Africa, as well as Europe.

    Such a merger would help Barclays compete with larger rivals like HSBC Holding and the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, but two people who confirmed that the inquiry had been made said that the contact between the two European banks was at a preliminary stage and that there was no certainty that Barclays would make a formal offer. The people declined to be identified, citing confidentiality agreements.

    Among other banks that analysts have said might be interested in all or parts of ABN are the Royal Bank of Scotland, ING Group of the Netherlands and Banco Santander, Spain’s largest bank. Barclays stated an interest in playing a role in any takeover battle involving ABN, one of the people said.

    ABN Amro, based in Amsterdam, came under pressure from shareholders earlier this year for failing to revive its share price, which has lagged behind those of other banks for years.

    Shares in ABN, which has its roots in a trading company set up by King Willem I in 1824, have barely budged since Rijkman W. J. Groenink took over as chief executive in May 2000.

    Analysts have said that the bank’s strategy is lacking focus and that at least three unsuccessful efforts to take over European rivals over the last eight years have weighed heavily on investors’ trust in Mr. Groenink.

    The Children’s Investment Fund and Tosca, two hedge funds that hold shares in ABN, called on Mr. Groenink last month to explore the options to sell, merge or spin off some of the bank’s assets, which they claimed were not meeting their full potential. Both hold stakes of about 1 percent in ABN.

    The Children’s Investment Fund is known for exerting pressure on management at companies it has invested in. In 2005, the fund successfully pushed for the ouster of two top executives at Deutsche Börse, the company that runs the Frankfurt stock exchange.

    Neil Moorhouse, a spokesman at ABN, declined to comment on an approach, as did a spokesman at Barclays.

    ABN, which owns LaSalle Bank in Chicago, has been considered a takeover target by rivals for years.

    ABN shares gained in September on speculation that Bank of America might be interested in acquiring it. About two years ago, it also sounded out the possibility of a combination with Barclays, based in London, but nothing came of it.

    Previously, potential bidders balked at hurdles, including ABN’s struggling wholesale division and disagreements on where a combined bank would be based, bankers said earlier.

    Mr. Groenink made it clear in the past that he was unwilling to give up Amsterdam as headquarters of any merged lender.

    Yet, in an interview with Bloomberg News in July, he said that he would not have a serious argument to reject a takeover approach with a “very good story” and an offer worth 40 percent above the share price.

    Any potential bidder for ABN may be attracted by the business in the United States, which is generating the largest slice of profit, and operations in fast-growing emerging markets like Brazil. ABN has a 56 percent stake in the South African bank Absa and also owns banks in Spain, Portugal and the Middle East.

    ABN bought Banca Antonveneta, an Italian bank, last year but has had trouble keeping a cap on expenses from the acquisition.

    For Barclays, an acquisition of a bank the size of ABN Amro would place it among the leaders in the global banking industry. It would help John Varley, chief executive, to meet his goal of more than doubling the share of earnings outside the bank’s British home market, where lenders have been hit by increasing loan losses.

    Barclays invested heavily over the last years in its investment banking unit, hiring bankers and adding products. The investments paid off last year when earnings from the securities business helped the bank to more than offset losses from bad loans.

    Mr. Varley has repeatedly said that he wanted to expand Barclays organically in markets like China but has not ruled out acquisitions. He hired Frits Seegers from Citigroup last year to help lead an expansion of the bank’s retail and commercial banking units.

    March 06

    Motivation

    Top Wall Street & Bank Traders

    Michael Hutchins

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~this guy is my boss's boss's boss's boss

    City: New York
    Firm: UBS
    Age: 49

    As UBS’s global head of fixed income, rates and currencies, Hutchins is one manager who still actively trades. The expectation that he will soon retire from the bank has sparked mass speculation among Street watchers over who his replacement might be. Publicly, however, Hutchins does not appear inclined to depart. Last October, he joined the Bond Market Association’s board of directors.
    Estimated income: $30–$40 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Driss Ben-Brahim

    City: London
    Firm: Goldman Sachs
    Age: 40

    The head of Goldman’s exotics-derivatives desk in London, Ben-Brahim made partner and was named successor to Christian Siva-Jothy and Geoff Grant, the former co-heads of Goldman’s global foreign-exchange prop-trading desk who left for hedge-fund land last year. Ben-Brahim did not take home a 2004 bonus in the same stratosphere as his 2003 check (which was rumored as high as $70 million), but he can still ably afford London rent.
    Estimated income: $25–$30 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Ken Karl

    City: New York
    Firm: UBS
    Age: 46

    Running the UBS prop-trading desk (known internally as PFG) as well as the firm’s credit arbitrage group, Karl fared well last year, winning a bonus package that might have made even a hedge-fund manager envious.
    Estimated income: $25–$30 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Jon Wood

    City: London
    Firm: UBS
    Age: 42

    Dubbed “Keyser Soze” by some rivals after the mysterious kingpin from The Usual Suspects, Wood, yet another big-earning UBS trader near the top of the Wall Street heap, is known for being secretive. He has also earned a reputation as one of the most aggressive and successful traders today. With just a few others alongside him, Wood runs what is viewed as one of the City’s most powerful equity-prop desks. He was recently lured out of seclusion as a result of his involvement in a legal spat concerning the Gadget Shop in the United Kingdom. Keyser Söze apparently has a sense of humor; British comedian Sacha Baron Cohen (Ali G) provided the entertainment at his fortieth birthday party.
    Estimated income: $25–$30 million
    ———————————————————————–
    John Bertuzzi

    City: London
    Firm: Goldman Sachs
    Age: 50

    Goldman insiders say Bertuzzi, another energy warrior, was on fire in 2004. “He made well over $100 million in profit for the bank,” one source tells us. While oil was so hot last year that many could turn a profit just by getting up in the morning, to rank among the most profitable in Goldman’s elite crew takes an edge.
    Estimated income: $20–$25 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Robert Cignarella

    City: New York
    Firm: Goldman Sachs Asset Management
    Age: 36

    Considered among the best debt traders on the buy side, Cignarella, a graduate of the University of Chicago Business School, is one of the brightest lights at GSAM, the asset-management arm of Wall Street’s most prestigious firm.
    Estimated income: $25 - $30 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Jeffrey Frase

    City: New York
    Firm: Goldman Sachs
    Age: 37

    As Goldman’s head of crude-oil trading, Frase had the catbird seat for the one of the biggest oil-price run-ups ever witnessed — and it appears he made good use of it. Colleagues report that his raw trading talent is as good as anyone’s.
    Estimated income: $20–$25 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Geoff Grant

    City: London
    Firm: Goldman Sachs
    Age: Early 40s

    A top Forex-market prop trader at Goldman, Grant took his bonus check and traded London drizzle for California sunshine, moving to Santa Barbara, California, to launch a hedge fund with fellow Goldman alum Ron Beller. The global macro fund, Peloton Partners, will be based in London, but Grant will operate from his little piece of paradise.
    Estimated income: $20–$25 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Olav Refvik

    City: New York
    Firm: Morgan Stanley
    Age: 46

    Some rival traders have dubbed him the “King of New York Harbor” for his savvy rental of waterfront real estate — he controls a large chunk of oil-storage space, which gave the firm an edge in last year’s raging oil market. Refvik, a Norwegian, is also known to sail around the harbor in his yacht, Song of Norway. His February bonus check should allow for a significant naval upgrade.
    Estimated income: $20–$25 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Neal Shear

    City: New York
    Firm: Morgan Stanley
    Age: 50

    Part of the crack energy team that was practically printing money for Morgan Stanley in 2004, Shear was rewarded for his success. In March, he was appointed head of fixed income, replacing Zoe Cruz. If the energy markets weren’t excitement enough for Shear last year, his appointment lands him neatly in the midst of a major power struggle between the backers and the enemies of CEO Phil Purcell.
    Estimated income: $20–$25 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Ashok Varadhan

    City: New York
    Firm: Goldman Sachs
    Age: 33

    Considered one of the best young traders on Wall Street, as well as a likely candidate to be among the next crop of Goldman pros bolting for a hedge fund, Varadhan heads up North American interest-rate products, reporting to Philippe Khuong-Huu. The numbers gene runs in the family: Varadhan’s father, Srinivasa, is an eminent mathematics professor at New York University.
    Estimated income: $20–$25 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Jack DiMaio

    City: New York
    Firm: CSFB
    Age: 37

    A cool cat, DiMaio has gone through a few lives in his career on Wall Street. The acclaimed bond trader first made headlines when he threatened to take his credit team to rival Barclays Capital, and later did an about-face after extracting a breathtaking compensation deal from CSFB. Former CSFB CEO John Mack, chagrined by the episode, later shunted DiMaio and his team over to the asset-management wing, CSAM. Now, with more than $1 billion of CSFB’s money under management, DiMaio is starting his own credit hedge fund, DA Capital.
    Estimated income: $15–$20 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Simon Greenshields

    City: New York
    Firm: Morgan Stanley
    Age: 49

    Another of the hot energy traders who made Morgan Stanley’s commodities department one of the top performers on Wall Street last year, Greenshields, a natural-gas and electricity trader, was handsomely rewarded for his performance.
    Estimated income: $15–$20 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Yan Huo

    City: London
    Firm: UFJ International
    Age: 41

    After a successful run heading a prop-trading desk in London for J.P. Morgan, Huo moved last year to a prop-trading position for UFJ International in the City, where he continued to excel.
    Estimated income: $15–$20 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Michael Nierenberg

    City: New York
    Firm: Bear Stearns
    Age: 42

    Bear Stearns had a phenomenal year in mortgage-backed securities, and few did better than Nierenberg, the firm’s co-head of MBS trading. In 2004, Bear dominated the global MBS market, with $93 billion in issuance for a 10 percent market share, some $6 billion more than its closest rival. Nierenberg is reportedly so superstitious that he refuses to write in red ink; we suspect he used quite a bit of black throughout 2004.
    Estimated income: $15–$20 million
    ———————————————————————–
    John Shapiro

    City: New York
    Firm: Morgan Stanley
    Age: 53

    The head of Morgan Stanley’s commodities-trading team, Street veteran Shapiro is known for trading in the physicals as well as energy derivatives. Morgan sources say Shapiro didn’t do too badly for his own book.
    Estimated income: $15–$20 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Barry Wittlin

    City: New York
    Firm: Merrill Lynch
    Age: 47

    Appointed head of strategic risk trading for Merrill Lynch’s global debt markets in January, Wittlin made his 2004 score heading the firm’s global-rates group. While the titles sound official and stuffy, Wittlin is in fact “one of the biggest prop traders there,” one insider says.
    Estimated income: $15–$20 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Nasser Ahmad

    City: New York
    Firm: CSFB
    Age: 37

    The A in Jack DiMaio’s new DA Capital, Ahmad, part of the group that jumped over to CSAM with DiMaio, has been running an internal credit hedge fund for CSFB. An accomplished fixed-income trader, he will now help run the more than $1 billion in DA Capital’s pot.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
    ———————————————————————–
    Charlie W.K. Chan

    City: Singapore
    Firm: CSFB
    Age: 45

    The head of emerging-markets FX trading, Chan (whose full name is Charlie Chan Wai Kheong) paced the bank-trading scene in Asia in 2004. His trading book for CSFB created buzz; might a move to a hedge fund be in the works?
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Nicolas Dusart

    City: New York
    Firm: BNP Paribas
    Age: 32

    French banks have a reputation for not paying as well as their American counterparts, but industry sources say BNP Paribas was hardly stingy when it came to Dusart’s bonus. The director of high-yield prop trading is said to be well worth all those euros.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Philippe Khuong-Huu

    City: New York
    Firm: Goldman Sachs
    Age: 40

    Another in a long line of brilliant minds to serve Goldman masters, Khuong-Huu was brought in four years ago from J.P. Morgan, where he launched the firm’s options-arbitrage group. A world traveler, Khuong-Huu worked in Paris at Société Générale in the late ’80s, trading in the bank’s index-arbitrage business. He later moved to J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Angie Long

    City: New York
    Firm: J.P. Morgan
    Age: 30

    Among the top traders at J.P. Morgan, Long last year ran high-yield and credit-derivatives trading; she was recently promoted to be deputy to Eric Rosen, the head of credit trading. Extremely bright and a trader’s trader — she can hold her own on the desk and on the town — she’s also the only female on the Trader Monthly 100.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Rajeev Misra

    City: London
    Firm: Deutsche Bank
    Age: Early 40s

    Misra, head of global credit trading, has helped turn Deutsche into a credit-derivates powerhouse. His inspiration was to better integrate the unit into the bank, leading to greater innovation and more money.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Aziz Nahas

    City: London
    Firm: J.P. Morgan
    Age: 33

    Head of prop trading at J.P. Morgan, Nahas was lured away from CSFB along with Cyril Levy-Marchal last March. He reported to head prop honcho Yan Huo (see page 81), but when Huo left, Nahas took over.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Sal Naro

    City: New York
    Firm: UBS
    Age: 43

    Naro surprised many when he left UBS this spring to launch a new hedge fund with SAC Capital veteran Mark Fishman. Based in Stamford, Connecticut, the fund is called Sailfish Capital.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Michael Phelps

    City: New York
    Firm: J.P. Morgan
    Age: Early 40s

    While the Olympic swimming stud who shares his name took home more gold in 2004, the Phelps who works at J.P. Morgan took home more green: He’s among the top prop traders at the bank.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Eric Rosen

    City: New York
    Firm: J.P. Morgan
    Age: Early 40s

    In the past 18 months, Rosen has risen, going from head of loan trading to co-head of credit trading and then to sole head of credit trading. Many speculate he’ll climb further still.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    Christopher Ryan

    City: New York
    Firm: UBS
    Age: Late 30s

    Named co-head of the newly created global credit group at UBS along with Sal Naro late last year, Ryan is the man left standing at the helm after Naro bolted to start his own hedge fund. UBS insiders say Ryan does not possess quite the trading chops of Naro, but he certainly did all right for himself in 2004.
    Estimated income: $10–$15 million
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    David Sabath

    City: New York
    Firm: J.P. Morgan
    Age: 41

    As head of credit prop-trading at J.P. Morgan, Sabath had a scorching year in 2004. This spring, he left to team up with Satellite Asset Management’s David Ford to launch a broad-based credit hedge fund. Before coming onboard at J.P. Morgan’s prop group, Sabath headed up distressed debt at Golman Sachs.
    Estimated income: $10 - $15 million
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    Geoffrey Sherry

    City: New York
    Firm: J.P. Morgan
    Age: 40

    It has been an interesting 18 months or so for Sherry, who was promoted in November, along with Eric Rosen, to run J.P. Morgan’s credit-trading business. Sherry did not stay especially long in his new seat, however. This past March, he bolted the firm to join Bruce Kovner’s Caxton Associates, where he’s starting a new fixed-income hedge fund.
    Estimated income: $10 - $15 million
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    Boaz Weinstein

    City: New York
    Firm: Deutsche Bank
    Age: 31

    One of the most popular traders on Wall Street, Weinstein is also among the most talented. As head of global credit trading-U.S., overseeing approximately 100 traders, he still spends a good deal of time trading for the firm’s internal hedge funds and prop-trading book. A star chess player, Weinstein was also once something of a card counter.
    Estimated income: $10 - $15 million